Tennis Probabilities: Surface Strength Before Live Score
A useful tennis probability starts with chronology-safe overall strength, then earns a surface adjustment before live scoring enters the picture.
Hermes Daily Recap — August 16, 2026
+29.51u on 56 settled Hermes recommendations (+91.66% ROI).
What the First Horse-Racing Backtest Must Prove
A credible racing backtest must preserve time, keep each race intact, score probability and price separately, and publish its failure conditions.
Hermes Daily Recap — August 15, 2026
−7.31u on 75 settled Hermes recommendations (−18.26% ROI).
Hermes Daily Recap — August 14, 2026
+5.79u on 33 settled Hermes recommendations (+28.17% ROI).
Myth vs Data: The Most Complex Model Must Be the Best
Complexity earns its place only when it improves frozen out-of-sample evidence beyond a simpler baseline—and survives ablation.
Hermes Daily Recap — August 13, 2026
+8.54u on 30 settled Hermes recommendations (+34.18% ROI).
Manual Wagering Is a Product Boundary, Not a Missing Feature
Hermes separates analysis, human review, manual action, and ledger recording so a useful signal never becomes an unattended wager.
Hermes Daily Recap — August 12, 2026
−4.89u on 38 settled Hermes recommendations (−16.41% ROI).
Coverage: The Quiet Metric Behind Every “No Bet”
Silence can mean disciplined restraint or missing evidence. Coverage separates a valid pass from a decision the model was never equipped to make.
Hermes Daily Recap — August 11, 2026
−2.99u on 40 settled Hermes recommendations (−9.97% ROI).
A Model Must Beat the Market, Not Just Guess Winners
Raw accuracy can look impressive while a frozen market benchmark remains stronger. The fair test compares probabilities on the same unseen events.